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U.S. presidential election, 2008
From TheBestLinks.com
The 2008 election for President of the United States is scheduled to occur November 4, 2008.
The shape of presidential battles
Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties - although many candidates seek election to the presidency, and the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, and Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy have all arguably been deciding factors in the last three presidential elections by swaying small numbers of votes away from one side and tossing victory to the other. The outcome of the 2004 presidential election will begin shaping the nature of the 2008 race, the selection of candidates, the central issues, and the policy platforms.
Scenarios
Generally speaking, there are two scenarios for the 2004 election that will shape the 2008 electoral field: a victory for John Kerry or a victory for George W. Bush. While there are, of course, other possibilities involving catastrophic events, assassinations, or acts of God, the unpredictability and unlikelihood of such occurrences removes them from the scope of this article.
Scenario 1: A Kerry victory in 2004
A victory for John Kerry (the Democratic nominee) would affect the shape of the 2008 election profoundly; if he wins the presidency in 2004, President Kerry would have four years to shape public policy and would be the likely candidate for the party in 2008. In practical terms, it would mean that defeated Democratic candidates in 2004, and those who chose not to enter the race, could well find themselves having to focus their presidential ambitions on the 2012 election rather than 2008, by which time new party figures, House members, Senators and Governors may eclipse them in profile. A victory for John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election could also end the prospects of Hillary Clinton becoming a candidate in 2008. By 2012, her presidential prospects may be overshadowed by newer Democratic politicians such as John Edwards (the Vice-President in the event of a Kerry victory in 2004 and thus the logical front-runner in 2012) or even Barack Obama.
If defeated in 2004, George W. Bush could seek to become his party's candidate in 2008. However, no former President since Theodore Roosevelt has sought the office after leaving it, and Grover Cleveland is the only president ever to win back his office after losing it. Bush's defeat in 2004 could result in the Republicans adopting a policy platform dramatically different from his in the 2008 election. Without an incumbent candidate for president, Republicans would have wide freedom in nominating their 2008 candidate. Regardless, the Republican party would likely be galvanized in opposition to the policies of a Democratic president during the four year term.
Scenario 2: A Bush victory in 2004
The re-election of George W. Bush in 2004 would produce a non-incumbent election in 2008; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. In 2008, President Bush would be constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In a few previous eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years (for example, Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election).
However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, making him the first Vice President since Spiro Agnew to have no presidential ambition. This has led to rumors that Cheney will be replaced as vice president at some point to establish someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008; although Cheney has been nominated for the vice presidency in the 2004 election, he could still well resign before November 2008. Regardless, depending on the success or failure of an eight-year Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of running a candidate who promised to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.
For the Democrats, a Bush re-election in 2004 would give them a broad freedom to choose a 2008 candidate and platform unencumbered by having their own sitting president seeking re-election. Some leading figures in the Democratic party have anonymously expressed their desire for Bush to be re-elected; because he is the most unpopular Republican president amongst Democrats in history, they feel that four more years would lead to spectacular party unity and fundraising success, laying the basis for a permanent Democratic resurgence.
Timeline
Candidates of the Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican and possibly other parties will begin making their plans known in early 2005.
Candidates: The lessons from history
Predictions as to who will be a major party's candidate in the 2008 election are difficult to make. Past selections suggest that the Democrats and Republicans will likely look to a present or former president or vice-president, Senator or Representative, or state governor. The last candidate from one of the two major parties who had not previously served in one of the elective offices listed above was General Dwight D. Eisenhower who won the Republican nomination and ultimately the presidency in the 1952 election.
In recent years, electoral success has favored state governors. Of the last five Presidents (Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush), only George H.W. Bush was never Governor of a state. Geographically, these Presidents were all from either very large states (California, Texas) or from a state south of the Mason-Dixon Line and east of Texas (Georgia, Arkansas). The last elected President from a northern state was John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts in 1960.
The last sitting U.S. Senator elected President was John F. Kennedy in 1960.
A major turnover in each of these offices will occur in presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional elections due in 2004, 2006, and 2008, which could see new potential challengers emerging or present challengers facing new circumstances.
Among the past upsets and unexpected candidates were the following:
- Many people predicted that the presidential election of 1936 would be a close election, but President Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Kansas Governor Alf Landon in a landslide.
- President Harry S. Truman was widely predicted to lose the presidential election of 1948, with Governor Thomas Dewey seen as the certain victor. However, this was based on telephone polling at a time when there was a statistically very significant proportion of the population who did not have telephones, and who generally favored Truman.
- Following his defeat in the 1960 election, few imagined that Richard Nixon would become the Republican nominee, let alone the Republican victor, in the 1968 election, nor were they prepared for the shock assassination of Senator Robert Kennedy and the decision of President Lyndon Johnson to drop out of the 1968 race. These events resulted in an electoral battle that no one had expected.
- In 1972, Senator Edward Kennedy was widely predicted as destined to be the Democratic candidate in either 1976 or 1980. However, after the Chappaquiddick scandal damaged his credibity, Kennedy's name was taken off the table. After a shortlived attempt to seek the Democratic nomination in the 1980 election, Kennedy never again sought the presidency.
- No one predicted that the 1976 presidential election would involve Congressman Gerald Ford, who suddenly became vice president and then president after the resignations of Vice President Spiro Agnew and President Nixon. Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter was a similarly largely unknown politician prior to his run, and not expected to be a large player in the race.
- Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton were not predicted to be candidates until their challenges were launched, even though Reagan had sought the nomination in 1976 and 1968.
- It was confidently predicted in the late 1980s that Mario Cuomo would be Democratic candidate in the 1992 election, with few even aware of Bill Clinton.
- Few political commentators were prepared for the initial, shock successes of Senator Gary Hart in challenging Walter Mondale for the Democratic nomination in 1984 because he was seen as a likely nominee for the 1988 election.
- George H. W. Bush was seen by many as unbeatable in the year prior to the 1992 presidential election due to his record approval ratings in the wake of the Gulf War.
- Howard Dean held commanding leads in both fundraising and opinion polls during the months prior to the Democratic primaries in the 2004 presidential election, but his campaign fizzled after stunning surges from John Kerry and John Edwards in the weeks prior to the earliest primaries.
The failure of front-runners like Edward Kennedy, Mario Cuomo and Howard Dean to win their parties' nominations, and unexpected victories like those of Harry Truman, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, show that any predictions made will have to be tentative.
Potential candidates for 2008
- Evan Bayh, U.S. Senator and former Governor, Indiana
- Rod Blagojevich, Governor of Illinois
- Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator, New Jersey; 2000 nomination candidate
- Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator, New York
- Wesley Clark, retired Army General and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander; 2004 nomination candidate
- Jon Corzine, U.S. Senator, New Jersey
- Richard M. Daley, Mayor of Chicago
- Tom Daschle, U.S. Senate Minority Leader, South Dakota
- Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont; 2004 nomination candidate Presidential nomination
- Richard Durbin, U.S. Senator, Illinois
- John Edwards, 2004 Vice Presidential nominee, and outgoing U.S. Senator for North Carolina (as of 2004); 2004 nomination candidate
- Russ Feingold, U.S. Senator, Wisconsin
- Al Gore, former Vice President and 2000 Presidential nominee
- Joe Kernan, Governor of Indiana
- John Kerry, 2004 Presidential nominee and U.S. Senator, Massachussets
- Mary Landrieu, U.S. Senator, Louisiana
- Blanche Lincoln, U.S. Senator, Arkansas
- Janet Napolitano, Governor of Arizona
- Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco
- Barack Obama, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Illinois (as of 2004)
- Nancy Pelosi, U.S. House of Representatives Minority Leader, California
- Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania
- Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico
- Charles Schumer, U.S. Senator, New York
- Eliot Spitzer, Attorney-General of New York
- Mark Warner, Governor of Virginia
- George Allen, Jr., U.S. Senator, Virginia
- John Ashcroft, U.S. Attorney General and former U.S. Senator, Missouri
- Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi
- George W. Bush, current President, will be eligible if he loses in 2004 (see also Possible Constitutional amendments below)
- Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida
- Elizabeth Dole, U.S. Senator, North Carolina; 2000 nomination candidate
- Bob Ehrlich, Governor of Maryland
- Bill Frist, U.S. Senate Majority Leader, Tennessee
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator, South Carolina
- Chuck Hagel, U.S. Senator, Nebraska
- John McCain, U.S. Senator, Arizona; 2000 nomination candidate
- Bill Owens, Governor of Colorado
- Rick Perry, Governor of Texas
- George Pataki, Governor of New York
- Colin Powell, U.S. Secretary of State
- Dan Quayle, former Vice President; 2000 nomination candidate
- Condoleezza Rice, National Security Advisor
- Tom Ridge, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Pennsylvania
- Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts
- Gordon Smith, U.S. Senator, Oregon
- Tommy Thompson, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services and former Governor of Wisconsin
- Michael Badnarik, 2004 Presidential nominee
- Michael Cloud, speechwriter
- Michael Colley, retired Navy Admiral
- James Gray, judge
- Carla Howell, management consultant
- Gary Nolan, radio host
- Ron Paul, Republican Congressman, Texas
- Aaron Russo, entertainment businessman
- L. Neil Smith, science fiction writer
- Ed Thompson, former Mayor of Tomah, Wisconsin
Other parties and independents
It is also conceivable that a candidate for a major party nomination that did not win that nomination might seek the presidency as an other party or independent candidate; contemporary examples include John Anderson, Republican nomination candidate and Independent general election candidate in the 1980 election, and Buchanan, Republican nomination candidate and then Reform Party general election candidate in the 2000 election.
Possible Constitutional amendments
There has been some discussion recently of amending the Constitution to remove the absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may become President. If such a change occurred in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates who are naturalized citizens would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in Canada, Democratic former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, born in Czechoslovakia, and Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, born in Austria.
The possible repeal or amendment of Amendment XXII has also come under some discussion. One proposal would allow a President to serve only two consecutive terms but seek to return after a respite. The only living former president who has served two terms is Bill Clinton. If George W. Bush won re-election in 2004, and sentiments across party lines looked favorably on a contest between him and Bill Clinton in 2008, a change to this term limit might find support.
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